Energy Demand in the Developing Countries: Prospects for the Future

摘要

The main motivation of the study was to highlight the key factors that have contributed to the historical increases in energy consumption in the developing countries as well as to project the changes likely to occur in the future. The scenarios for the future take into account the changing relationships between economic growth and energy consumption, structural changes, and the potential for fuel substitution. The study covers eight major developing countries representing about one-half of total energy consumption in the developing countries. Because of their diversity and size, the conclusions reached about these countries can reasonably be extrapolated to developing countries as a whole. The results of the study indicate that increased levels of motor vehicle use and urbanization are the main factors contributing to increases in energy consumption in the developing countries. These factors, as well as rising incomes and shifts away from the use of traditional fuels, will continue to support increases in commercial energy use over the long term.