Future mobility in India: Implications for energy demand and CO_2 emission

摘要

The aim of this study is threefold. First, it aims to provide a reliable data set of land-based passenger traffic volumes in India from 1950-1951 to 2000—2001 for the five major motorized modes of transport—two-wheelers, cars, auto-rickshaws, buses, and railways. Second, based on this data set, it aims to estimate the long-term trends in motorized traffic volume and modal split up to the year 2020-2021. Third, based on the projected values of aggregate traffic volume and modal split, this study aims to estimate the level and growth of energy demand and CO_2 emission from the passenger transport sector in India. It is found that the motorized traffic volume in India will very nearly touch the mark of 13000 billion passenger-kilometers in 2020-2021, out of which 91.7% will be provided by the roads and the rest by railways. If there is no reduction in modal energy and CO_2 intensities, energy demand is projected to increase from 1060.8 peta joules in 2000-2001 to 5584.4 peta joules in 2020-2021 and CO_2 emission will increase from 19.80 to 93.25 million metric tons of carbon equivalent during the same period.