一种提高农产品市场价格预测精度的改进算法

摘要

In order to improve the forecast accuracy of market price of agricultural products and find out the products with abnormal market price timely , the paper made a comparative analysis of 9 different kinds of time-series non-sea-sonal exponential forecast methods , including the weighted arithmetic average and the double exponential smoothing method based on the monthly average price of 13 kinds of products such as carrot from Lvxin agricultural products wholesale market of Jincheng city , Shanxi province , and an improved double exponential smoothing method was pres-ented finally .The square sum of error of the improved method was no more than that of the previous ones , and the errors of the improved one decreased 30.07% according to the forecast data of March .Products with the abnormal market price in this wholesale market in a certain month can be determined with an integrated analysis of a certain product's square sum of error of forecasting value and actual value , as well as that of a historical forecast .%为进一步提高农产品市场价格预测精度，及时发现价格异常的农产品，研究以山西晋城绿欣农产品批发市场胡萝卜等13种农产品月均价格数据为依据，对比分析了加权算术平均法、二次指数平滑法等9种时间序列非季节指数预测法，提出了一种改进的二次指数平滑预测法。应用改进后的二次指数平滑预测法计算的误差平方和均小于或等于改进之前，以3月份预测数据为例，其改进算法后误差平方比改进前降低了30.07％。综合分析预测值与实际值的误差平方和，以及该种农产品历史预测误差的平方和，可以确定该批发市场某月价格异常的农产品。