Ganzhou City of Jiangxi Province is the largest orange producting region in China. In order to master the changes in the orange orchard area and analyze the changes in the orange orchard yield and the cau-ses of the change,this paper takes Xinfeng County as the research object,based on the three-phase Landsat TM/OLI remote sensing images,this study,by comprehensive application of RS and GIS technologies monitored and analyzed the changes in the citrus orchard area in 2009—2016. The results showed that:from 2009 to 2016,the orage orchards in Xinfeng experienced county obvious dynamic changes in land use,in 2009—2013 forest,residential area,bare land,mining area mainly changed into orchards,however,in 2013—2016 the case was just the opposite;from 2009 to 2016 the area of navel orange orchards showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,from 2009 to 2013,the orchard area increased by nearly 10.85 km2 ,from 2013 to 2016, the orchard area decreased by nearly 30.49 km2;Huanglongbing,the annual average temperature and the per capita orchard area were the main driving force for the changes in the area of navel orange orchards,the influ-ence of the outbreak of Huanglongbing on navel orange plantin was particularly significant. The results of this study are basically the same to the statistics in the corresponding annals of Xingfeng County. The study has made a reasonable analysis of the changes in the navel orange yield,providing a scientific basis for the middle-and-short term prediction of the orange production in Ganzhou City.%江西省赣州市是全国最大的柑橘生产地,为详细掌握柑橘果园的面积变化情况以及分析果园产量变化原因,以赣州市信丰县为研究对象,采用Landsat TM/OLI三期遥感影像,综合运用RS和GIS技术对2010—2016年柑橘果园面积变化进行遥感动态监测和分析.研究结果表明:2009年—2016年,信丰县柑橘果园经历了明显的土地利用动态变化,2009—2013年农田、林区、裸地主要转变成果园,2013—2016年则刚好相反;2009年至2016年柑橘果园种植面积呈先增加后减少的变化趋势,2009—2013年果园面积增长了近10.85 km2,2013—2016年果园面积减少了近30.49 km2;黄龙病,年平均气温及人均园地面积是影响柑橘果园面积变化的主要驱动力,其中2013年爆发的黄龙病对柑橘种植的影响尤为显著.研究结果与信丰同期统计年鉴中柑橘种植情况基本一致,能为柑橘果园产量变化做出合理分析,为中短期赣州柑橘产量预测提供科学依据.
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