基于 Logit模型的农户病虫害专业化防治意愿及影响因素分析--以镇江市为例

摘要

基于对镇江市农户的实地调查数据，利用多项Logit模型分析了农户病虫害专业化防治意愿及其影响因素。发现：籍贯和年龄对农户专业化防治意愿无显著影响；受教育程度对农户选择“代防代治”和“全程承包”在10％水平上有显著负向影响；家庭务农人数对农户选择“代防代治”和“全程承包”分别在1％和5％水平上有显著负向影响；种植面积对农户选择“代防代治”和“全程承包”均在1％水平上有显著正向影响。%Based on the field survey data of farmers in Zhenjiang city , the author analyzed farmers ’ willingness to accept spe-cialized control against agricultural diseases and pests as well as its influencing factors by using polynomial Logit model .It was found that:the native place and age of farmers had no significant influences on their willingness to accept specialized control against agri -cultural diseases and pests;the educated level of farmers had significant ( P<0.1) negative influences on their selection of “control-ling agricultural diseases and pests for farmers” and “undertaking the whole field management for farmers”;the farming population in household had significant negative influences on farmer ’ s selection of “controlling agricultural diseases and pests for farmers” and“undertaking the whole field management for farmers” at 1%and 5%level respectively;the cultivated area of farmers had signifi-cant ( P<0.01) positive influences on their selection .