欧盟东扩对我国制造业影响的实证分析

摘要

欧盟东扩后产生了贸易创造和贸易转移效应，其中贸易转移效应将影响我国对欧盟出口。东扩的国家人均GDP显著低于西欧，但也显著高于我国，所以与中国相比对欧盟出口可能拥有不同比较优势，对我国不同技术含量的制造业商品出口欧盟会产生不同程度的影响，本文首先分析了中东欧主要国家和我国制造业的双边贸易以及中国和中东欧国家出口欧盟的制造业商品结构，然后基于制造业相对显示性指数实证分析得出：欧盟东扩后，制造业商品出口结构恶化，特别是中低技能技术的制造业产品在东盟东扩后受到的贸易转移效应影响尤为明显，而对我国劳动和资源密集型产品影响不大，还有最近几年的贸易摩擦使得高技能技术产品的出口欧盟受阻，进一步恶化了我国对欧盟制造业商品出口结构。%After EU eastern enlargement, the trade creation and trade diversion will effect China's exports situation with EU and trade diversion will affect China's exports to the EU obviously. Enlargement of national Real GDP per capita of the enlarged country is significantly lower than that of Western Europe, but also significantly higher than that of China. So compared with the eastern enlarged country, China's exports to the EU may have different comparative advantages and our country different technical content of manufactured goods exports to the EU will have varying degrees of impact. This paper first analyzes the main countries in the enlarged countries and China's bilateral trade with those countries .Then analyzes goods which export to EU in manufacturing of China and the enlarged European countries is different in goods structure and based on the empirical analysis concludes: relative display manufacturing index after EU enlargement, manufactured goods export structure of China deteriorates, especially in low and middle skills technology manufacturing products.