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Dynamic decisions, asset pricing, and default correlation: A value-based approach to credit risk.

机译:动态决策,资产定价和违约关联:基于价值的信用风险管理方法。

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摘要

This dissertation explores the various ways in which correlated phenomena relate to default risk. More specifically, I explore the connection between credit-default risk and the dependencies and cross-correlations arising in collections of assets. In Chapter (4), building upon previous work by Grune and Semmler (2005), using company-specific endogenous risk premia, I explain how exposure to risk impacts asset value. I extend these results to study the effects of random shocks to diversified capital assets, wherein the shocks are correlated to varying degrees. Using a numerical dynamic decision approach, I show the impact of varying dependency structures on the over-all default rate. In Chapter (5), I take note of the advent of securitization products; those products have brought the issue of default correlation to the center of finance. Using several computational methods, thus allowing different dimensions of phenomena to be treated in the most appropriate way, I extend the results of Chapter (4) to apply to the recent sub-prime and credit crises. Using a regime-shift approach to explain certain dramatic features of these phenomena, I replicate synthetic structures and use Monte Carlo simulation and a Cholesky reduction approach to explore such issues contagion and default correlation. Lastly I investigate policy decisions and find that it has only limited efficacy---concluding that issues of asymmetric information are key to the safe administration of structured products.
机译:本文探讨了相关现象与违约风险相关的各种方式。更具体地说,我探讨了信用违约风险与资产集合中产生的依存关系和相互关系之间的联系。在第(4)章中,根据Grune和Semmler(2005)的先前工作,使用公司特定的内生风险溢价,我解释了风险敞口如何影响资产价值。我将这些结果扩展到研究随机冲击对多元化资本资产的影响,其中冲击与不同程度相关。使用数值动态决策方法,我展示了变化的依存关系结构对总体违约率的影响。在第(5)章中,我注意到证券化产品的问世。这些产品将违约相关性问题带到了金融中心。使用几种计算方法,从而允许以最合适的方式处理现象的不同维度,我将第(4)章的结果扩展到适用于最近的次贷和信用危机。我使用一种制度转移的方法来解释这些现象的某些戏剧性特征,我复制了合成结构,并使用了蒙特卡罗模拟和Cholesky归约法来探讨此类问题的传染性和默认相关性。最后,我研究了政策决策,发现它的功效有限-得出结论,信息不对称问题是结构化产品安全管理的关键。

著录项

  • 作者

    Bernard, Lucas.;

  • 作者单位

    New School University.;

  • 授予单位 New School University.;
  • 学科 Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 148 p.
  • 总页数 148
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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