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River basin scale hydrologic modeling for prediction of water availability.

机译:流域规模的水文模拟,用于预测可用水量。

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摘要

This research, focused on semi-distributed physically-based hydrological modeling in the tropics and subtropics, is represented in three parts. Part one aims to vigorously evaluate the performance of hydrologic model in simulating the hydrologic response of a subtropical data-rich gauged basin in the U.S., the Upper Kentucky River basin. Part two examines the performance and reliability of the validated model in a tropical data-poor ungauged basin in Central Vietnam, the Huong River basin. This part also studies total suspended solids concentration simulation beside river discharge and indentifies possible anthropogenic impacts on natural river flow. Part three is an assessment of water availability in the Vietnam basin for the twenty first century driven by projected climatic data from different Global Climate Models. The hydrologic model that is used in this research is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi integrated physically-based watershed model. Hydrological modeling in this research takes advantage of the recent advances in Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing and employs publicly available products such as climatic data and Global Climate Model projections.;Research results suggest that the SWAT model has good performance in the Upper Kentucky River basin and has the capability of reproducing daily discharge in alternative time periods and locations of the river. However, the SWAT model, driven by remotely sensed inputs, can only reasonably simulate runoff processes in absence of ground observations as in the Huong River basin. The study's results also indicate the continuous increase in summer and fall discharge of Huong River within the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. In A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models predict a decrease in river discharge from present to 2060s and then increase until 2080s; while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until 2060s and then decrease for the rest of the century.
机译:这项研究主要集中在热带和亚热带的半分布式基于物理的水文模拟中,分为三个部分。第一部分旨在大力评估水文模型在模拟美国上肯塔基河流域亚热带数据丰富的规范盆地的水文响应中的性能。第二部分检查了验证模型在越南中部香河流域的一个热带数据贫乏,未开垦盆地中的性能和可靠性。本部分还研究了河流排放物旁边的总悬浮物浓度模拟,并确定了人为因素对自然河流流量的影响。第三部分是根据不同全球气候模式的预估气候数据,对二十一世纪越南盆地的可用水量进行评估。本研究中使用的水文模型是土壤和水评估工具(SWAT),这是一种基于物理的半集成分水岭模型。本研究中的水文模型利用了地理信息系统和遥感技术的最新进展,并采用了气候数据和全球气候模型预测等公开可用的产品;研究结果表明,SWAT模型在上肯塔基河流域具有良好的性能。并具有在其他时间段和河流位置重现每日排放量的能力。但是,SWAT模型是由遥感输入驱动的,只能像Huong河流域那样在没有地面观测的情况下合理地模拟径流过程。该研究的结果还表明,在A2和B1情景下,在二十一世纪内,洪河的夏季和秋季流量持续增加。在A1B情景中,HadCM3和GFDL-CM2.1模型预测从现在到2060年代河流流量将减少,然后一直增加到2080年代。 ECHAM5-OM模型产生相反的预测,到2060年代,流量将增加,直到本世纪下半叶才减少。

著录项

  • 作者

    Le, Tuan Bao.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Texas at San Antonio.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Texas at San Antonio.;
  • 学科 Engineering Environmental.;Water Resource Management.;Hydrology.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2014
  • 页码 143 p.
  • 总页数 143
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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