Development of a framework for managing the product life cycle using chaos and complexity theories.

摘要

This research investigates the application of Chaos and Complexity theories to the development of product strategy for high-tech companies. Specifically, the researcher attempts to develop a quantitative means for determining a product's position within the Technology Adoption Life Cycle. The Technology Adoption Life Cycle provides the basis for many strategic decisions regarding product strategy, marketing strategy, pricing and customer assurance. Proper assessment of a product's position within this life cycle is required for the development of the correct strategies. However, no method for quantitatively determining this position previously existed.; Through an in-depth study of the hard drive industry over a 27 year period, a framework for quantitatively determining a product's position within the Technology Adoption Life Cycle is developed. This framework accounts for the complex and dynamic nature of the market, as well as the co-evolution between competing products. By plotting a product's attractor as a function of market share, it is possible to determine a product's position by comparing it to the industry attractor. A set of equations is developed which mathematically define each phase of the life cycle and enable quantitative analysis of product positioning. Additionally, a method for determining the inflection points is developed.; The framework is further refined by the development of a classification tree which enables automatic determination of life cycle position. Both the framework and the classification tree are cross validated using data from the microprocessor industry. In addition to proving the general applicability of the framework, this also shows the ability of the framework to accept varying resolutions of data. The framework is extended to allow analysis of market segment specific products in addition to industry products. The framework proved 99.5% accurate, properly classifying 186 out of 187 instances derived from 2 industries and a specific market segment.; This research concludes that it is possible to quantitatively determine a product's position within the Technology Adoption Life Cycle. The application of tools from Chaos and Complexity theories enabled the development of a framework to achieve this goal.