Long cycle theory of global politics: An investigation into its explanatory and predictive power.

摘要

This paper continues the research conducted by Modelski and Thompson into the role of sea power in global politics in order to test its explanatory and predictive power with regard to the rise of China. The work extends the empirical research on global naval capability to the period 1993 to 2010. It has found that during this period the US share in world naval capability has remained undisputed -- increased actually -- compared to the shares of Russia and China, both in terms of the combined naval capability indicator proposed by Modelski and Thompson and the alternative one proposed in this paper. Yet the overall capability position of the US has declined. These findings are contrary to what the long cycle theory should predict according to Modelski and Thompson: an increasing share of global naval capability of the Soviet Union/Russia and a declining share for the United States. Instead, this prediction has completely missed the (already evident) collapse of the Soviet Union and fails to explain the disappearance of a challenger of the world power status of the US through something other than global war. The long cycle theory also fails to accord a place to China. The insignificant Chinese share of global naval capability found as a result of the research conducted seems irrelevant in relation to the vital position it currently occupies in the world economy. This casts doubt on the explanatory and predictive power of the long cycle theory. This paper raises further questions about the methodological and theoretical foundations of the theory and concludes that some of its assumptions are of a definitional and deterministic character. In particular, it fails to take into account alternative geopolitical outlooks to the sea power thesis central to its theoretical foundation. Finally, the current Chinese and U.S. foreign and security policies in Asia were analyzed by this paper to see whether these policies conform to the explanations and predictions of the long cycle theory. It was concluded that while according to that theory the current cycle is one where preference for order should be low, the opposite is actually the case, particularly regarding the Asia-Pacific region where the United States presence is still seen as vital for its order maintaining capability.