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Time-varying risk premia, sources of macroeconomic risk, and aggregate stock market behavior.

机译:时变风险溢价,宏观经济风险来源以及总体股市行为。

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摘要

A lot of empirical work has documented stylized facts that suggest links between macroeconomics and finance. As yet there no well developed theory to explain these stylized facts. Standard model fail to reproduce the level, variation, and cyclical co-movement of equity premia. This research investigates several aspects of the relationship between aggregate risk, risk premia, and the pricing of financial assets. Chapter 2 presents new evidence on the level and movements of the expected excess return of stocks, and its relation to sources of macroeconomic risk, from a model that allows time variation in risk premia. The third chapter develops a theory of asset prices based on standard expected utility that explains the links between risk and the empirically-observed high and time-varying risk premia, volatile prices, and predictable excess returns. In contrast to extant literature, we show that it is possible to rationalize major movements in the stock market with standard preferences. Understanding the level and variation of equity premia is crucial to answer Lucas' (1987) question about how costly individuals find business cycle fluctuations in consumption growth. In the final chapter, the results from the previous chapters are applied to address Lucas' question in a model that replicates the level and nature of individual consumption risk, and the Sharpe-ratio of the S&P 500. We find that large welfare gains from stabilization policies are possible.
机译:许多实证研究已经记录了风格化的事实,这些事实表明了宏观经济学和金融之间的联系。迄今为止,还没有完善的理论来解释这些典型事实。标准模型无法再现股权溢价的水平,变化和周期性共同变动。这项研究调查了总风险,风险溢价和金融资产定价之间关系的几个方面。第2章通过允许风险溢价随时间变化的模型,提供了有关股票超额预期收益的水平和变动及其与宏观经济风险来源的关系的新证据。第三章基于标准预期效用提出了资产价格理论,该理论解释了风险与根据经验观察到的高,随时间变化的风险溢价,价格波动和可预测的超额收益之间的联系。与现有文献相反,我们表明可以通过标准偏好使股票市场的主要走势合理化。理解股权溢价的水平和变化对于回答卢卡斯(1987)有关高成本个人如何在消费增长中发现商业周期波动的问题至关重要。在最后一章中,前几章的结果适用于解决卢卡斯问题的模型,该模型复制了个人消费风险的水平和性质以及标准普尔500指数的夏普比率。我们发现稳定能带来巨大的福利收益政策是可能的。

著录项

  • 作者

    De Santis, Massimiliano.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Davis.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Davis.;
  • 学科 Economics Finance.; Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2005
  • 页码 152 p.
  • 总页数 152
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 财政、金融;经济学;
  • 关键词

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