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Asset pricing in a Lucas framework with boundedly rational, heterogeneous agents.

机译:在具有有限理性,异构代理的卢卡斯框架中进行资产定价。

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摘要

The standard dynamic general equilibrium model of financial markets does a poor job of explaining the empirical facts observed in real market data. The common assumptions of homogeneous investors and rational expectations equilibrium are thought to be major factors leading to this poor performance. In an attempt to relax these assumptions, the literature has seen the emergence of agent-based computational models where artificial economies are populated with agents who trade in stylized asset markets. Although they offer a great deal of exibility, the theoretical community has often criticized these agent-based models because the agents are too limited in their analytical abilities.; In this work, we create an artificial market with a single risky asset and populate it with fully optimizing, forward looking, infinitely lived, heterogeneous agents. We restrict the state space of our agents by not allowing them to observe the aggregate distribution of wealth so they are required to compute their conditional demand functions while simultaneously learning the equations of motion for the aggregate state variables. We develop an efficient and exible model code that can be used to explore a wide number of asset pricing questions while remaining consistent with conventional asset pricing theory. We validate our model and code against known analytical solutions as well as against a new analytical result for agents with differing discount rates.; Our simulation results for general cases without known analytical solutions show that, in general, agents' asset holdings converge to a steady-state distribution and the agents are able to learn the equilibrium prices despite the restricted state space. Further work will be necessary to determine whether the exceptional cases have some fundamental theoretical explanation or can be attributed to numerical issues. We conjecture that convergence to the equilibrium is global and that the market-clearing price acts to guide the agents' forecasts toward that equilibrium.
机译:金融市场的标准动态一般均衡模型在解释真实市场数据中观察到的经验事实方面做得很差。均质投资者和理性预期均衡的共同假设被认为是导致这种糟糕表现的主要因素。为了放松这些假设,文献已经看到了基于代理的计算模型的出现,在这种模型中,人造经济中充斥着在程式化资产市场中交易的代理。尽管它们提供了很大的灵活性,但理论界经常批评这些基于主体的模型,因为主体的分析能力太有限了。在这项工作中,我们创建了一个具有单一风险资产的人工市场,并为其进行了全面优化,具有前瞻性,无限生命的异构代理。我们不允许代理商观察财富的总分布,从而限制了代理商的状态空间,因此要求代理商计算其条件需求函数,同时为总状态变量学习运动方程。我们开发了一种有效且灵活的模型代码,可用于探索众多资产定价问题,同时与传统资产定价理论保持一致。我们根据已知的分析解决方案以及具有不同折现率的代理商的新分析结果,验证我们的模型和代码。我们对没有已知解析解的一般情况的模拟结果表明,总的来说,代理商的资产持有量收敛于稳态分布,并且尽管状态空间受到限制,代理商仍能够了解均衡价格。确定异常情况是否具有一些基本的理论解释或可以归因于数值问题,将需要进行进一步的工作。我们推测,达到均衡的收敛是全球性的,而市场结算价格的作用是指导代理商的预测朝着均衡方向发展。

著录项

  • 作者

    Culham, Andrew J.;

  • 作者单位

    The Florida State University.;

  • 授予单位 The Florida State University.;
  • 学科 Mathematics.; Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2007
  • 页码 149 p.
  • 总页数 149
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 数学;财政、金融;
  • 关键词

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