Examining possibility of the Expanding Mongolian Agricultural Export Market:Gravity model analysis

摘要

Mongolia is a developing country in transition.The economy is dominated by only a few sectors notably mining and animal husbandry products.As a small land-locked country located between the China and Russian Federation and due to an undeveloped domestic infrastructure, transportation costs for foreign trade are high.However, trade is very important with a high share in total GDP, due to the small domestic demand, Mongolia is a net exporter for many mineral products but various animal husbandry products notably met, wool, cashmere, casings and leather, eco vegetables some kind of rarity fruits export market still need to be expanded. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to analyze implications of an open trading on the Mongolian economy and this thesis uses the gravity equation aims to empirically examine the Mongolian potential export countries and evaluate the main determinants some interference on gap between potential and actual size.
　　The research has been estimated on basis of 38 countries which have traded much with Mongolia.Due to the lack of some years data at all classification field (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 years data missed), the data used the models will be total of 6 years; 2013, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003 Reports classification of HS92 is included a most of years report and data downloaded from http://comtrade.un.org/data/.Total trade is considered with the 20 commodities which estimated at this research paper as comparative advantage product of Mongolia and over the study period these commodities accounted for huge volume of exporting commodities of the value of agricultural output in Mongolia.
　　The research consider the

目录

声明

ABSTRACT

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

TABLE CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

CHAPTER 1．INRODUCTION

1．1 Background and problem

1．2 Motivation

1．3 Objective of the study

1．4 The research method

1．5 Innovation of the research(new findings)

1．6 Structure of paper

CHAPTER 2．MONGOLIAN TRADE CURRENT SITUATION AND INTERNATIONAL RELATION

CHAPTER 3．LITERATURE REVIEW

Ⅲ．1 The gravity model in International trade and theoretical foundations

Ⅲ．2 Applications of Gravity model

CHAPTER 4：METHODOLOGY

4．1 Data for the research paper

Ⅳ．2 Methodology of Revealed comparative advantage analyze

Ⅳ．3 Basic gravity

Ⅳ．4 Calculation of international environmental arrangements and trade policy on entering international trade organization effects

4．4．1 Augmented gravity model

Ⅳ．5 Methodology of estimating trade potentials

Ⅳ．6 Gravity model for calculate on Mongolian Agricultural trade protection and export expansion

Ⅳ．6．1 Empirical literature and models

CHAPTER 5．ESTIMATION AND DISCUSSION EMPIRICAL RESULT

Ⅴ．1 Revealed comparative advantage analyze

Ⅴ．2 A gravity model for the calculation of trade potentials for Mongolian export

Ⅴ．2．1 Basic gravity model

Ⅴ．2．2 Calculation of international environmental arrangements and trade policy on entering international trade organization effects

5．2．3 Statistical result from augmented model

Ⅴ．3 Trade Potential of Mongolia and Concept of the Methodology

Ⅴ．4．Gravity model for calculate on Mongolian Agricultural trade protection and export expansion

Ⅴ．4．1 Model 1．Effect of NTB on Mongolian import for agriculture sector protection

Ⅴ．4．2 Model 2．Mongolian agriculture export impact by importing countries protection

RESEARCH PROJECT

CHAPTER 6．CONCLUTION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

References

Appendix