Prediction and Disaster Analysis on Shiliushubao Landslide Mass in Three Gorges of Yangtze River

摘要

To predict the time of landslide is the problem which is still unsolved in landslide research. For example Shiliushubao landslide in the paper, use grey theory model as being main, long-term forecast model, regard the rate of deformation as the main criterion and predict the state. Use Verhulst theory model in facing slippery stage, and regard greatest displacement as the criterion and predict the destroy time of landslide. In addition, through predicting the height of wave, due to Shiliushubao landslide mass, at every main port of reservoir area of Three Gorges, and appraising the calamity, offer the scientific basis for formulation of the disaster prevention and reduction countermeasure.