PREDICTIONS OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE BEHAVIORS FROMACTIVE FAULT SYSTEMS ACROSS THE JAPANESE ARCHIPELAGOBY STATISTICAL SIMULATIONS

摘要

The main aim of the present paper is to predict the earthquake occurrence behaviors from major activefault systems across the Japanese archipelago, and following contents are reported.First, probabilities for numbers of earthquakes occurring over set periods of time are estimated bystatistical simulation. Second, it is estimated that more than 90% of the earthquakes occur when their 30-year probabilities exceed 0.01. Third, the probabilities are estimated for a number of active fault systemswhose 30-year probabilities are particularly large. Fourth, it is estimated that activities in 'agitated'periods are more than 3 times as high as in 'tranquil' periods.