Simulation in mental health planning

摘要

This paper describes two simulation models developed in the course of a research project undertaken for the North Carolina Department of Mental Health. The project performed a systems analysis of the alcoholism program currently being conducted by the Department in one of four regions in the state. One model is a micro simulation of individuals with problem drinking behavior and the resulting community actions in the handling of that behavior. This model is comprehensive in its detail; aspects of treatment, rehabilitation, program effectiveness, and cost are incorporated in order to provide extensive statistics used in the second model. The second model is a macro aggregative simulation which operates in a conversational mode and is used by management within the Department of Mental Health in their planning and budgeting process. The details of each model are discussed, results from the models are presented, and the initial reactions of the executives within the Department of Mental Health aresummarized.