Travel demand forecasting and TDM measures: the example of Montreal's south shore, 2001-2021

摘要

Based on an extensive study completed for the Department of Transportation of the province of Quebec (DTQ), Canada, in 2002, the paper presents a case study of travel demand forecasting in the Montreal Metropolitan Area (MMA) between the South Shore and the rest of the RMM (mainly the Island of Montreal). The main objective was to diagnose the need or not of new infrastructures (new bridge, Light Rail Transit, etc.) vs. Travel Demand Management (TDM) measures to solve the problem of the growing congestion on the bridges. Starting from the medium scenario of morning peak travel demand for 2001-2021 produced by the DTQ, simulations were made to measure the possible impact of various TDM measures, derived from a review of the literature, as well as the combination of TDM measures and new mass transit infrastructures. The findings show that the strong ageing trends will have a natural tendency to reduce the past tendencies of rising global mobility and motorization, and we could even see, starting 2011, diminishing demand especially if strong TDM measures are implemented. The combination of various TDM measures could have a significant effect on future travel demand and appears to be a realistic alternative to the implementation of new infrastructures.