MEASURING UNCERTAINTY IN LONG-TERM TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FROM DEMOGRAPHIC MODELLING: CASE STUDY OF THE PARIS AND MONTREAL METROPOLITAN AREAS

摘要

Uncertainty on traffic forecasts may have an impact on reimbursement scheduling for investment, as well as for scenarios for operating costs. Even the best projections are based on models and assumptions, thus raising the question of their accuracy. Indeed, long term investments are risky and it is important to cope with uncertainty. This paper deals with the uncertainty on a long term projection with an Age-Cohort approach. We used the jackknife technique to estimate confidence intervals and observe that the demographic approach outlines the structural determinants for long term trends of mobility.