Daop 2 Bandung is one of the Indonesian railroad operations areas,under the administration of PT Kereta Api Indonesia(Persero).Daop 2 Bandung is currently experiencing a problem in predicting the number of passenger volumes.It is common for railway transportation services to experience passengers flows that increases or decreases in the volume which in turn causes the service of the PT.KAI becomes less optimum.Therefore,a forecasting information system is needed to forecast the volume of train passengers in the upcoming period.This study applied Double Exponential Smoothing method as a forecasting method.The data used is the number of passenger volume data for two periods,i.e.2017 and 2018 periods.For forecasting accuracy,PE(Percentage Error)and MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error)were used.The passenger volume forecasting results on the Executive Class category shows 946,824 with an error percentage of 11.9962%,the Business Class category shows 221,188 results with an error percentage of 21.6714%,and the Economy Class category shows 5,144,074 with an error percentage of 10.4366%.
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机译:DAOP 2 Bandung是印度尼西亚铁路运营领域之一,根据PT Kereta API印度尼西亚(Persero).DAOP 2 Bandung目前在预测乘客卷的数量时遇到问题。铁路运输服务普遍存在乘客又在体积中增加或减少的流量,这反过来导致PT.KAI的服务变得更少。因此,需要预测信息系统来预测即将到期的时间内列车乘客的数量。本研究应用双指数平滑方法作为预测方法。使用的数据是两个时段的乘客数据的数量,IE2017和2018期。使用预测精度,PE(百分比误差)和MAPE(均值绝对百分比误差)。乘客量预测结果在行政类别类别上显示946,824,错误百分比为11.9962%,业务类别类别显示221,188个结果,误差百分比21.6714%,经济类别类别显示5,144,074个误差百分比为10.4366%。
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