Economic analysis of the sustainability of Volgograd region in various scenarios of pension age in the Russian Federation

摘要

The global trend that has engulfed the world is the aging of the population. This is the reason for the urgency of the discussion on reforming traditional social security systems. The purpose of this study is to analyze the optimality of the population structure by the example of the Volgograd region, using various scenarios for raising the retirement age. The scientific novelty of the study is that it has developed a holistic approach to studying the problem of changing (increasing) the retirement age in the context of demographic processes, the situation in the labor market and in the pension sector. The article compares the age of retirement and the average life expectancy after retirement for the Russian Federation, Moscow, the Volgograd region, and some selected countries for analysis. According to the results of the study, the size of the minimum and average pensions in the countries selected for analysis is presented and the average life expectancy after retirement for men and women is predicted in 2021, based on various retirement-age scenarios. Using the age-shifting method, the prognosis of the number of the able-bodied population of the Volgograd Region in 2021 is provided. The results of calculations of the pension, potential and general workload indicators for men and women in the Volgograd Region in 2016 and 2021 are given. for different scenarios of retirement age. In the course of this study, an analysis was made of the optimality of the age composition of the population, in the forecast period by the Rosstat method. Based on the analysis of the situation with the able-bodied population in the Volgograd region, a conclusion was made about the inevitability of raising the retirement age in the Russian Federation.