Technology for Forecasting the Region Economy and Budget Revenues Development on the Basis of Interindustry Balance

摘要

The objective of the work is to develop the technology for forecasting the region economy and budget revenues development on the basis of interindustry balance. The forecasting was done taking into account the dynamics of the interindustry balance, investments, resource expenses and capacities restrictions. As the result of the forecasting the budget revenues were developed for three years. The relevance of the work is due to the proper management system development and the region social and economic development forecasting (subject of the Russian Federation). The mathematical model of the region economy development as a vector task of mathematical programming was created. The model was developed on the basis of interindustry balance and by considering the investments into each sector of the region economy. Methods for the vector tasks solution are based on the criteria and the max-min principle (the guaranteed result) normalization. Practical realization of the model is shown on statistical data of the certain region (Primorskiy Krai). As a result the forecast for the region economy key indicators development as well as the budget revenues were drawn in dynamics (for several years). The authors imply the directions of further researches in the development of more perfect software and its application for each subject of the Russian Federation forecasting.