Dynamics simulation model of demand and supply electricity energy public facilities and social sector case study East Java

摘要

Electrical energy is one important factor in the development of every nation, including Indonesia. Electrical energy has an important role in the development of both the economic and social aspects. Remember so large and important energy benefits of electricity while the power generation energy sources, especially those from non renewable resource limited presence, and to ensure the sustainability of energy sources is necessary pursued strategic steps to support the provision of electrical energy in an optimal and affordable. This paper explores how dynamic modeling can help generate future scenarios of electricity consumption. This modeling study the structure of complex systems and to test different scenarios. This paper have 3 Scenario such as, normal condition, optimistic condition(growth increase 0.5% per month), and pessimist condition(growth decrease 0.5% per month). Also a large number of variables, which affect the behavior could be considered. Power producers, suppliers and distributors requires knowledge of the total consumption to support their business, such as investment decisions of new substations. Modeling and simulation of the results obtained to analyze the electrical energy demand Social and Public sector based on current conditions and forecast electricity demand in the field of Social and Public in the future and how the availability of electricity in the future.