The Application of Time Series Analysis Model in the Prediction of Rice Blast

摘要

The research of time series analysis model to predict the effect of rice blast, provides the reference for the prediction of the disease. In successive years of planting area and the rice blast incidence area as the original data, were used to establish the forecast model of time series analysis of moving average, exponential mean and variance analysis of periodic extrapolation of rice blast incidence, analysis its forecast results, and built at the beginning ofthe prediction was verified in application. The experimental results show that the time sequence analysis model can be used for long-term forecasting of rice blast.