The effect of volatility of RMB exchange rate about China's export - an empirical study based on Sino-US time series during 2005-2012

摘要

In order to analysis the influence of China's export to the US since the exchange rate system was reformed in 2005, according to Rose and Yellen's simplified trade balance model, this paper carries out an empirical analysis on Sino-US quarterly time series data of 2005-2012, with JJ cointegration test and Granger causality test. The empirical result shows that, because of this reform, the key factors affecting the long-term Sino-US trade surplus is still the US domestic consumer demand, the impact of Renminbi (RMB) appreciation on China's export is very small but has a tendency to increase. At present, most of the researches on bilevel programming problems are focused on single objective cases. This paper discusses a bilevel programming problem with upper level multiobjective optimization. In order to solve the problem efficiently, we present a genetic algorithm using interpolation. This method does not require solving lower optimization problem frequently. In the proposed algorithm, firstly, the interpolation functions are adopted to approximate lower level solution functions. As a result, the original problem can be approximated by a single-level multiobjective programming. In addition, the corresponding interpolation functions are updated such that these functions can approximate the lower level solution function very well. Finally, the multiobjective programming is solved for obtaining an optimal solution set of the original problem. The simulation on two examples indicates the proposed algorithm is effective and feasible.