OPTIMISING THE EARLY DETECTION OF AVIAN INFLUENZA H7N9 VIRUSES INLIVE BIRD MARKETS

摘要

Identified as high-risk environments for avian influenza H7N9 transmission, live bird markets (LBMs) are key sites to target surveillance for early detection, implement rapid response and prevent human infections. Here, a within-LBM H7N9 meta-population model with demography was fitted to different Vietnamese LBMs at risk of H7N9 introduction. The model was used to determine optimal sampling strategies and to assess the cost-effectiveness of portable PCR devices for real-time virus detection in LBMs.Results show that utilising portable PCR devices was more expensive but reduced substantially the number of infected birds leaving the LBM before the first detection, as compared to a lab-based surveillance strategy in which samples are sent to officialdiagnostic laboratories to be processed. Findings also suggest that banning birds staying overnight would represent an effective intervention to reduce the risk of H7N9 spread but would increase the risk of not detecting the virus before it disappears.