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Apparatus and method for estimating risk of avian influenza on poultry farms following detection of avian influenza virus in wild birds

机译:野生鸟类禽流感病毒估算家禽养殖场禽流感风险的装置和方法

摘要

Based on an individual-based stochastic model (IBM) designed to spread avian influenza infection through contact between poultry farms, livestock vehicles, and wild birds, when AI antigens are detected in wild birds, individual poultry farms are used. A poultry breeding farm risk calculation apparatus and method, and a recording medium that can predict the risk of infection and the risk of occurrence by unit region (eg, by administrative district such as city, county, and district) are provided. The method for calculating the risk of poultry farming farms when detecting avian influenza antigens in wild birds according to an embodiment of the present invention is an individual-based probabilistic model designed to spread avian influenza infection by contacting a poultry farm, a livestock vehicle, and wild birds. calculating the distribution of the number of infections for each farm by repeatedly simulating; and calculating the risk of occurrence of avian influenza based on the distribution of the number of infections of poultry breeding farms belonging to each unit region for each preset unit region.
机译:基于基于个性的随机模型(IBM),旨在通过家禽农场,家畜和野生鸟类之间的接触来扩散禽流感感染,当在野生鸟类中检测到AI抗原时,使用各个家禽养殖场。提供了一种家禽育种农场风险计算装置和方法,以及可以预测感染风险的记录介质以及由单位区域发生的风险(例如,由市,县,县和区等行政区)。根据本发明实施例的野生鸟类中检测禽流感抗原的禽流感抗原的禽类抗原的风险的方法是一种基于个体的概率模型,旨在通过联系家禽农场,牲畜车辆和畜牧业和畜牧业野生鸟。通过反复模拟计算每个农场的感染数量的分布;基于每个预设单元区域的每个单位区域的家禽育种农场感染数量分布的分布计算禽流感的风险。

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