Based on an individual-based stochastic model (IBM) designed to spread avian influenza infection through contact between poultry farms, livestock vehicles, and wild birds, when AI antigens are detected in wild birds, individual poultry farms are used. A poultry breeding farm risk calculation apparatus and method, and a recording medium that can predict the risk of infection and the risk of occurrence by unit region (eg, by administrative district such as city, county, and district) are provided. The method for calculating the risk of poultry farming farms when detecting avian influenza antigens in wild birds according to an embodiment of the present invention is an individual-based probabilistic model designed to spread avian influenza infection by contacting a poultry farm, a livestock vehicle, and wild birds. calculating the distribution of the number of infections for each farm by repeatedly simulating; and calculating the risk of occurrence of avian influenza based on the distribution of the number of infections of poultry breeding farms belonging to each unit region for each preset unit region.
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