ROAMING DOGS AND SPATIAL KERNELS: MODELLING RABIES SPREAD ANDVACCINATION STRATEGIES IN A HETEROGENEOUS POPULATION

摘要

Free-roaming domestic dogs display complex roaming behaviours, which need to be captured to realistically model the spread of direct contact, infectious diseases such as rabies. Data were collected from domestic dogs using global positioning systems (GPS) units to characterise roaming patterns and classify roaming categories. Contact distance kernels were developed based on simulated utilisation distribution overlaps and incorporated into a rabies spread model for the Northern Peninsula Area, Australia. Outputs from this model display how heterogeneity in roaming patterns influence disease spread in domestic dogs. Furthermore, targeted vaccination scenarios for each roaming category were explored and compared to the recommended 70% vaccination coverage. Some vaccination scenarios with high vaccination coverage for dogs with high roaming behaviours and a lower overall population coverage were just as effective as 70% coverage, suggesting some dependence of vaccination strategy success on which roaming category was targeted.