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Modeling the effect of measures to limit the spread of infectious diseases

机译:造型措施限制传染病传播的影响

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This article aims to model and study the effect of the strength, time and duration of the restrictive measures for the spread of an infectious disease. The inconveniences, economic losses and gaps in education are the price that society pays to prevent the spread of the virus. It is important that restrictive measures cover the shortest possible time interval, at the most appropriate time, in order to have minimal negative consequences for society, and at the same time to be effective against the spread of the virus. We consider as a basis the SIS compartmental model for the spread of a virus and apply numerical experiments assuming that, unlike the classic model, the transmission rate α is a monotonically decreasing function of time. Numerical experiments show that earlier introduction, greater stringency and a shorter period of adaptation to restrictive measures until they enter into force would lead to a smaller proportion of infected people, a shorter period of implementation of measures and small economic losses.
机译:本文旨在模拟和研究强度,时间和持续时间对传染病的传播的限制措施的影响。教育的不便,经济损失和差距是社会支付以防止病毒传播的价格。重要的是,限制性措施在最合适的时间内涵盖了最短的时间间隔,以便对社会具有最小的负面后果,同时对病毒的传播有效。我们认为是SIS分区模型的旨在对病毒的传播和应用数值实验,假设与经典模型不同,传输速率α是一个单调的时间函数。数值实验表明,早期的引入,更大的严格性和对限制措施的适应时间较短,直到他们生效将导致受感染者比例较小,实施措施和小经济损失较短。

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