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Carbon Emission Prediction of Civil Buildings in China based on Improved Grey Prediction Method

机译:基于改进灰色预测方法的中国民用建筑碳排放预测

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Civil construction is an important source of carbon emissions. The implementation of total carbon emission control for civil buildings is an important means to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction in China. The study divides civil buildings into urban residential buildings, rural residential buildings, public buildings, and northern urban heating. The study calculates and predicts the total carbon emissions of China's civil buildings. Firstly, according to the statistical method of IPCC, the calculation model of carbon emissions of civil buildings is constructed, and the total amount of carbon emissions of civil buildings in China from 2005 to 2016 is calculated by using the energy balance table. Further, based on the improved grey prediction method, the national civil use from 2017 to 2025 is predicted. Total carbon emissions from construction. The forecast results show that in 2017-2025, the annual average carbon emission growth rate of buildings is about 4.65%, and by 2025, the total emission is expected to reach 298.176 million tons of CO2. In order to achieve the 2030 emission reduction target, it is necessary to further optimize the energy structure, improve the energy efficiency of the building, and increase the carbon emission reduction in civil construction.
机译:民用建设是碳排放的重要来源。民间建筑总碳排放控制的实施是实现中国能源保育减排的重要手段。该研究将民用建筑划分为城市住宅建筑,农村住宅建筑,公共建筑和北方城市供暖。该研究计算并预测中国民用建筑的总碳排放量。首先,根据IPCC的统计方法,建立了民用建筑物碳排放的计算模型,通过使用能源平衡表计算了2005年至2016年中国民用建筑的总量。此外,基于改进的灰色预测方法,预测了2017年至2025年的国家民事用途。施工总碳排放量。预测结果表明,2017 - 2015年,建筑物的年平均碳排放增长率约为4.65%,到2025年,预计总排放量将达到2981.76万吨二氧化碳。为了实现2030减排目标,有必要进一步优化能量结构,提高建筑的能量效率,并提高公民建设的碳排放减少。

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