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A fuzzy mathematical model of West Java population with logistic growth model

机译:基于逻辑生长模型的西爪哇群众模糊数学模型

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In this paper we develop a mathematics model of population growth in the West Java Province Indonesia. The model takes the form as a logistic differential equation. We parameterize the model using several triples of data, and choose the best triple which has the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The resulting model is able to predict the historical data with a high accuracy and it also able to predict the future of population number. Predicting the future population is among the important factors that affect the consideration is preparing a good management for the population. Several experiment are done to look at the effect of impreciseness in the data. This is done by considering a fuzzy initial value to the crisp model assuming that the model propagates the fuzziness of the independent variable to the dependent variable. We assume here a triangle fuzzy number representing the impreciseness in the data. We found that the fuzziness may disappear in the long-term. Other scenarios also investigated, such as the effect of fuzzy parameters to the crisp initial value of the population. The solution of the model is obtained numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme.
机译:在本文中,我们在印度尼西亚西爪哇省的人口增长中发展了数学模型。该模型将表格作为逻辑差分方程。我们使用多个数据进行参数化模型,并选择具有最小平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)的最佳三倍。结果模型能够以高精度预测历史数据,并且还能够预测人口数的未来。预测未来的人口是影响考虑因素的重要因素是为人口做好良好的管理。完成了几个实验,以查看数据中的不精确性的影响。这是通过将模糊初始值考虑到清晰模型的模糊初始值来完成,假设该模型将独立变量的模糊性传播到从属变量。我们在这里假设三角形模糊数字,表示数据中的不精确性。我们发现模糊可能在长期内消失。其他场景还调查,例如模糊参数对人口脆性初始价值的影响。模型的解决方案在数值上使用第四阶runge-kutta方案进行数字。

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