Highway Passenger Traffic Volume Prediction of Cubic Exponential Smoothing Model Based on Grey System Theory

摘要

In consideration of highway passenger transportation system is a Grey system of incomplete information; this paper constructs a Grey model and a cubic-exponential-smoothing model at first. In order to avoid the shortcomings of a single model, it constructs a cubic-exponential-smoothing combination model based on Grey system theory by using the optimal weighted principle. Compared with the single model, the prediction accuracy of the cubic-exponential-smoothing combination model is higher, and the predicted results are much more reliable. So it is better suitable for highway passenger traffic volume prediction. At last, this paper gives the prediction of the National highway passenger traffic volume in the first five months of 2014.