There is a natural conflict between the pace of technology change and the practical pace of change that can occur across the network in a large scale operation, such as that of an MSO. Because of this, it is always the case that there will be significant uncertainties to weigh when making network investment decisions. A commonly encountered uncertainty is assessing the merits and timing of an investment path associated with development and mass deployment of a new technology. In particular, the question that must rightfully be asked at each technology turn is whether one investment path that appears sensible is instead more wisely passed over in favor of a succeeding emerging technology path. This reflection and assessment must continually be made even should the former path be "plan of record," and even if it is already underway. With the pace of technology change accelerating and in many directions, the timing of new technology introduction is never perfect. It is rarely even good. There is no simple solution to this puzzle, only a logical "best effort" path that requires operators to increasingly understand that business plans are living documents, and sometimes short-lived at that. Investment decisions should place a premium on flexibility and open standards, and be based on a vision of a long term end state to serve as a guidepost. There are many example of the above dynamic for MSOs. One of the more timely examples this paper will focus on is fiber evolution for Cable Operators. Operators have been putting more and more fiber into their networks for years. This will surely continue. The question that the industry is grappling with more so than ever is the nature, scale and appropriate path forward for fiber usage beyond its long-standing HFC and business services roles, and the implications this has for operators given the aforementioned imbalance of rate of change between technology and network evolution. This paper will take a look at how the various stakeholders of one major US operator defined the network evolution problem statement with a long term quantified perspective, determined a vision forward, and developed a plan to deliver on this vision. We will discuss and enumerate some of the assumptions, levers, compromises, platforms, and customer objectives driving the recommendations. We will consider alternative scenarios and reflect on the deviations this may cause in a long-term plan. Finally, we will postulate long term states of services and architecture, and discuss heavy-hitting variables and their potential impact. In short, we will provide an example template for the Fiber Frontier, with an eye towards investment criteria, practical change, and customer experiences.
展开▼
