Empirical analysis on influential factors and countermeasures of Sino-US trade frictions

摘要

The paper examines impacts of China's trade surplus with the US, marketization degree in China, economic scale in China, unemployment rate in the US, and the exchange rate of RMB on trade frictions from 1978 to 2012 using vector autoregression analysis (VAR), impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis. We find a long-term stable equilibrium between these influential factors and trade frictions. The impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis show that effects of these factors on trade frictions are obvious in the previous periods. Contribution degrees of exchange rate, unemployment rate, economic scale, and trade surplus are higher than other factors. Marketization degree's contribution to trade frictions is the lowest.