The role of China in 2 degree world: the needs for change in energy system planning

摘要

China is taking the crucial role to fulfill the global 2-degree target, which is claimed that the global temperature should be kept below 2 degrees by 2100. China is now the top CO2 emitter in the world and has much potential in carbon mitigation, and is now on the stage of its 12th five years plan and facing the problem of energy system optimization. This paper presents an assessment of possible changes in energy system planning in China within a 2 degree world. Our study is based on China-ESPT, a bottom-up and technological based optimization model with rich technical details at sectorial levels, including industry, power generation, and transportation, residential and commercial sectors. Three scenarios are designed referring to three kinds of mitigation pathways to fulfill the global 2-degree target: Equal per capita cumulative principle (EPC), grandfather principle (OF), and contraction and convergence (CC). The results show us the effect of carbon mitigation pathway, and relevant changes for energy system infrastructure, it is possible to evaluate both mitigation policies and technology innovation. Besides, we also considered the total cost for the adjustment of energy system. This analysis offers good reference and strong support for China's policy design and optimization both in short term by year 2020 and long term by year 2050. Under the 2-degree global target scheme, China should find its own way to both meet the global target as a main role and make optimal and cost-effective adjustment for energy system via a sustainable development way.