Path choice of developing bio-energy while keeping food security ---A general equilibrium model

摘要

This paper focused on a discussion whether developing bio-energy will threaten food security in China. It constructed a general equilibrium analysis model based on demand-supply theory. The model contains two types of bio-energy resources and different factors influencing crops demand and supply. The model took price as endogenous variable. Under different conditions, the paper studied how the exogenous variables influence the equilibrium. The model also includes a bio-energy production function to interpret the different responds of the bio-energy supply with the change of exogenous variables. Two constraint conditions and four results simulated the real bio-energy development. Using pure economics method rather than the gimcrack econometrics method is an innovation on applied energy economics study, and it is thought to make a slight contribution to the new energy industrial development model. Building a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to solve the problems that were not solved in this paper is the work going on next.