Quantile EstimationWhen Applying Conditional Monte Carlo

摘要

We describe how to use conditional Monte Carlo (CMC) to estimate a quantile. CMC is a variance-reduction technique that reduces variance by analytically integrating out some of the variability. We show that the CMC quantile estimator satisfies a central limit theorem and Bahadur representation. We also develop three asymptotically valid confidence intervals (CIs) for a quantile. One CI is based on a finite-difference estimator, another uses batching, and the third applies sectioning. We present numerical results demonstrating the effectiveness of CMC.