THE?LOOMING?IMBALANCE SUPPLY/DEMAND?IMPLICATIONS?OF?THE?SHALE?OIL?REVOLUTION

摘要

1. Surplus?natural?gas?supplies?have?depressed?prices,?driving producers?to?shift?their?focus?to?crude?oil?and?high‐BTU?gas 2. The?result?has?been?a?surge?of?light‐sweet?crude?oil?and natural?gas?liquids?(NGL)?production 3. These?supplies?compete?directly?with?growing?heavy,?oil sands?production?from?Canada 4. Demand?from?U.S.?and?Canadian?refineries?is?expected?to be?flat?or?decline 5. Crude?oil?imports?will?be?displaced;?Exports?will?be economically?attractive 6. Canada?+?U.S.?can?achieve?self‐sufficiency?in?crude?oil supplies?by?2017?and?will?enjoy?oil?prices?well?below?global levels?–with?important?balance?of?payments?and?political consequences.