Impact of climate change on future hydro-climatic conditions in the Western Bug river basin

摘要

The future availability of water from natural water resources in the Western Bug river basin is important for the local human population. Due to its transnational character, the quality of natural water bodies also touches international and European interests which in turn stimulate a growing need for Integrated Water Resources Management. Based on IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1 driven ECHAM 5 global climate projections we investigated the regional impact of climate changes on the future hydro-climatic conditions in the Western Bug River basin. Dynamical downscaling of these global climate projections with the regional climate model CCLM shows clear regional climate changes until the end of this century. 2m temperature rises throughout the area with the fastest warming rates in winter. However, yearly precipitation sums don't change significantly, but the annual cycle does with more precipitation in winter and spring and less precipitation in summer. The potential water availability follows the precipitation pattern, whereby the gain in winter and spring doesn't compensate the summer deficit in the climatic water balance due to increased evaporation.