New Approach to Integrating Various Risk Types Throughout a Development Project

摘要

Project risk management is currently used in several industries and mandated by government acquisition agencies around the world resulting in many guidance documents and standards. Common practice results in the creation of a list of risk items and placing them in a location of a matrix based on an assigned probability and consequence scales. Project teams are then tasked to "move" the items to an acceptable place on the matrix by implementing action plans and contingency procedures. The determination of probability and consequence is often accomplished by committee usually focusing on cost and schedule consequences. Several authors have rioted deficiencies in these structures. This paper examines casting the risk management process into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment framework to tie project risk to system risk. Within this structure the definition of risk is consistent with that held by PRA analysts and augmented to address the deviations from an accepted plan. The benefits of such an approach leads to a system where the scenarios tracing risk items to many possible consequences are explicitly understood; the interaction between the cost model, schedule model and system model drive the analysis; probabilities for overruns, delays, increased system hazards are determined directly, and finally a set of importance measure are calculated for risk items, causes, and decision points.