Research on Link Travel Time Reliability Model Based on Massive Expressway Toll Data

摘要

Massive expressway toll data contained lots of valuable information. However, the skills of mining and analyzing toll data were limited currently. This study explored the modeling method of road network travel time reliability based on massive toll data. Firstly, this study obtained travel time data sample of each link at different months, and analyzed travel time statistical properties preliminarily. Secondly, this study used normal distribution, gamma distribution and Weibull distribution to fit travel time data sample, and different statistical indicators were involved to measure the fitting effect. Fitting results showed that normal distribution for link travel time was more rational and acceptable than the others. Thus, this study established link travel time reliability model, and proposed moment estimation method of calibrating the model parameters. In practical application, the reliability model can be used to judge traffic operating posture for expressway management department, and also can be used to forecast travel time information, to provide valuable reference on decision-making for drivers' travel plan or route choice.