Risk Assessment of Ship Oil Spills in the Ningbo-zhoushan Port

摘要

The accidents of ship oil spill have been one of the most significant factors leading to marine pollution, so appropriate approaches to forecast ship oil spill risk has important significance. Risk assessment of ship oil spills is a complex multi-factor issue, which plays a key role of ship oil-spill emergency response. A novel fuzzy evaluation model for risk assessment of ship oil spill is presented by analyzing historic accident data and expert experience. The model is used to compute comprehensive accident probability of ship oil spill and analyze sensitivity of risk factors so as to evaluate ship oil spill risks quantitatively and find out major risk factors which influedce ship oil spill risk. At last, the presented model is applied to study the ship oil spill risk in Ningbo-zhoushan port, the assessment examples are proved to test the feasibility and reliability of the model.