Structure of a digital agriculture system and agricultural risks due to climate changes

摘要

Digital agriculture is an application of the “digital earth” concept proposed in the 1990s and is an expansion of the concept of “precision farming” which emphasizes on agricultural production procedures. A digital agricultural system is a database that includes not only various kinds of data relevant to agriculture, ranging from soil conditions to market assessment, but also optimal decision functions that help make best decisions in a series of agricultural production and marketing processes. Such a system is an important agricultural risk management tool, which can help assess risks due to climate change, develop a revenue protection plan for producers, and generate a soil quality management plan. This paper describes a structure that was originally proposed to the Canadian digital agriculture system; National Land and Water Information Sei-vice. The agroclimate database structure is described in detail, including data error estimation methods and guidance for generating optimal decision fiinctions. The crop insurance under the future climate change scenarios require a strategic plan to deal with the altered tail probability distribution of the unfavourable weather events, such as drought, flooding, extreme wind, and extreme temperature. The digital agriculture system is an effective tool for insurance industry to use to develop a dynamical business plan for the changing climate. This paper includes two examples of the climate changes over Alberta Province, Canada, and over the contiguousUnited States for over 100 years. Alberta, six agroclimate parameters were considered for the period of 1901-2001. For the US, two warm periods in 1895-2008 were identified: the 1930s “Dust Bowl” drought and the recent warmth of the last two decades. The United States agriculture suffered a catastrophic loss in the “Dust Bowl” period. Because of the effective insurance plans and the critical governmental assistance, the agricultural loss due to drought and other disasters weather events in the lasttwo decades was not catastrophic but still serious. Nine of the ten warmest winters according to the seasonal daily-minimum SAT and nine of the ten hottest years according the annual daily-mean SAT were in these two periods. The exception occurred duringa short-lived period of anomalous warmth from 1953-1957.