Systematic procedure to generate a strategic energy technology development plan: Scenario planning and MCDM approach

摘要

Scenario planning is applied to the wide areas of public and private sectors for preparing for the future environment changes. In this research, we suggest the systematic procedure to build a strategic energy technology development plan in case of energy sector by using scenario planning and multi-criteria decision making approaches for the uncertain future and energy security. This research presents how to find and generate the strategic energy technology development plan considering the key uncertainty variables for making scenarios. We choose the 10 shortlisted variables sorted by STEEP approach for developing strategic energy technology development under the national energy security. And then, we establish four scenario cases according to the key criteria such as oil price changes and nuclear power plant construction. We analyze the four scenario cases and which energy technology is preferred by the various MCDM approaches. The results of this research provide the energy policy makers and decision makers for preparing for the uncertain future strategically.