SIMULATION OF TOURISTIC SECTOR IN A DESTINATION INTO A DECLINE PHASE

摘要

By using the a modified Point Matching Method to determine parameter identification in logistic equations we model the evolution of the Tourist Offer in one zone of Tenerife Island, in Canary Island, Spain which in the last years has been growth affected by de known decline phase in the terminology of Butler. We use a new version of Bass equation to simulate the real evolution of this variable which can too be considered as level solution of a stochastic equation.