A Modified Statistical Model for Wind Power Forecast Considering Wind Power Output Control and Its Applications

摘要

At present, the wind power forecast errors are mostly assumed to be normally distributed, beta distributed or Cauchy distributed. However, considering the wind power plants can actively control and regulate their output power, the wind power forecast distributions must be influenced. In this paper, a modified statistical model for wind power forecast distribution under wind power output control is established. The model can accurately reflect how the distribution changes when the wind generation is controlled. The result reveals that the reliability of wind power generation will be improved with output control. Then, based on the model proposed, some applications for wind power generation are described.