AN INTEGRATED WIND POWER FORECASTING METHODOLOGY: INTERVAL ESTIMATION OF WIND SPEED, OPERATION PROBABILITY OF WIND TURBINE,AND CONDITIONAL EXPECTED WIND POWER OUTPUT OF A WIND FARM

摘要

The article presents a novel quantitative methodology for wind farm management. The methodology starts by forecasting the time series mean and volatility of wind speed. The forecasting of wind speed mean and its volatility is built on an autoregressive moving average model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process, namely an ARMA-GARCH model With the prediction of wind speed mean and its volatility, the article establishes the interval estimation of wind speed which makes the prediction of wind speed more accurate and reliable. To facilitate the quantitative management of wind farm, the operation probability (OP) of wind turbine is formulated according to the interval estimation of wind speed. Based on the characteristics power curve of wind turbine, the article develops the conditional expected wind power output equation (CEWPOE). The interval estimation of wind speed, the OP of wind turbine, and the CEWPOE thus comprise an integrated methodology for the quantitative management of wind farm operations.