Operational reliability analysis considering multi-factors in large-scale freezing weather

摘要

Large-scale freezing weather has various negative effects on power system reliability. This paper presents a method that can consider multiple factors to calculate the power system operational reliability in freezing weather. In the paper, wind speed, icing, power line flow and the hidden failure rate are included in the operational reliability analysis of freezing weather. To consider the stochastic failure events of transmission components, a classic Monte Carlo simulation method is developed. Case studies based on a real power system in China are conducted and the simulation results show that weather conditions and hidden failures of protection system can have non-ignorable influence on transmission system reliability.