Perceiving Others' Perceptions of Risk Still a Task for Sisyphus

摘要

The recent literature providing insights from neuroscience and evolutionary biology into how indi-viduals perceive risky choice situations represents a "second wave" of findings that recapitulatesas well as challenges the risk perception research begun in the 1980s, which relied on psychometricsurvey research. Gleaning insights from the first wave of research that could improve the commu-nication and control of environmental risks has yielded disappointing results. This is a result, inpart, of the eagerness of scholars and pundits to posit a chasm between the "rational" and "ob-jective" perceptions of experts, on the one hand, and a lay public that is seen as lurching between"paranoia and neglect" and as insensitive to the magnitude of risks. Interpretations of the psy-chometric research have suffered from inattention to uncertainty and interindividual variabilityin risk, to expert biases, and to important aspects of risky choice that were not explored in thefirst wave of research. Initial signs indicate that neuroscience and evolutionary biology researchmay fall prey to similar misinterpretations. This article summarizes some of the most intriguingfindings of the "second wave" of risk perception research and advances four themes that may helpmake the new findings less divisive and more useful for improving risk communication and riskmanagement. Continued research into risk perception should perhaps be embedded in a moregeneral theory of public choice in the face of uncertain and variable costs and benefits and with arespect for distributive justice as an important goal in risk management.