Solar Radiation Estimated Through Mesoscale AtmosphericModeling over Northeast Brazil

摘要

The use of renewable energy sources, like solar, wind and biomass is rapidly increasing in recent years, with solar radiation as a particularly abundant energy source over Northeast Brazil. A proper quantitative knowledge of the incoming solar radiation is of great importance for energy planning in Brazil, serving as basis for developing future projects of photovoltaic power plants and solar energy exploitation. This work presents a methodology for mapping the incoming solar radiation at ground level for Northeast Brazil, using a mesoscale atmospheric model (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System — RAMS), calibrated and validated using data from the network of automatic surface stations from the State Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources from Ceara (Fundacao Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hidricos- FUNCEME). The results showed that the model exhibits systematic errors, overestimating surface radiation, but that, after the proper statistical corrections, using a relationship between the model-predicted cloud fraction, the ground-level observed solar radiation and the incoming solar radiation estimated at the top of the atmosphere, a correlation of 0.92 with a confidence interval of 13.5 W/m~2 is found for monthly data. Using this methodology, we found an estimate for annual average incoming solar radiation over Ceara of 215 W/m~2 (maximum in October: 260 W/m~2).