Using Program Theory and Logic to Improve Design and Likelihood of Real Market Change: Experience with a State Public Benefits Program

摘要

Portfolio-level and program-specific theory and logic modeling activities are currently being performed within the New York State Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) for their New York Energy-$martK Program. This paper provides details on the theory and logic efforts that have evolved during an ongoing assessment of over 30 interrelated energy-efficiency and renewable-resource programs. These activities are helping NYSERDA to describe critical program activities within a broader context of the markets it is targeting. They help describe how the portfolio of programs works together to achieve overarching goals and confirm and identify logic elements and underlying theories. In addition they can identify high priority measurement indicators and researchable issues for tracking performance, market changes, and assessing causality. Results from these activities are also providing NYSERDA's implementation staff with real-time insights and feedback on the effectiveness of their programs, recommendations for modifications to better align activities with desired goals (given current driving and restraining forces), and an improved "performance story" to explain their programs to partners and stakeholders. Samples of the methods used, logic-diagrams created, logic-elements identified (I.e., target markets, barriers, program activities, outputs, short, intermediate and long-term outcomes, external influences), potential measurement indicators, and researchable issues are provided. Finally, the paper summarizes results and lessons learned about logic modeling in general, and more practically with a focus on describing how these theory-related activities are being used to help develop energy-efficiency policies, program designs, market assessments and implementation improvements that will maximize abilities to achieve lasting change.